"Russia will invade part of Ukraine within a relatively short timeframe, six months at most."
Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The largest European war since 1945 begins.
Philippe Fabry is a legal historian, lawyer, and author of ten books. He developed historionomy — a scientific method for analyzing historical cycles that makes it possible to understand, and anticipate, major political, geopolitical, and institutional transformations. He delivers lectures to executive committees, asset management firms, think tanks, and leading universities.
Historical models do not predict the future with the precision of an exact science. They do, however, make it possible to identify the probable trajectories of political powers and institutional transformations. Three examples from the published work of Philippe Fabry.
Russia will invade Ukraine before 2025, after having subjugated Belarus.
Belarus falls under Moscow's control in late 2020. The Russian invasion begins in February 2022. Prediction confirmed live on TV5 Monde.
The European Union will enter a phase of legitimacy crisis leading to a revolutionary process.
European institutional crisis, rise of sovereigntist forces, permanent internal tensions since 2016. Trajectory consistent with the model of imperial decline.
The United States is entering a Caesarist phase — neither fascism nor classical populism, but a profound reconfiguration of the imperial state.
Trump's second term marked by a strong executive, a redefinition of alliances, and an administrative reconfiguration characteristic of the model.
Where the traditional historian looks for what makes an era unique, historionomy works in the opposite direction: it identifies recurrences, builds models, and categorizes political trajectories (nation-state building, the rise and fall of empires, democratic and revolutionary phases).
It is an empirical, cumulative approach that follows the standard scientific method: observation, hypothesis, verification, refutation, revision. It belongs to the tradition of Fernand Braudel's longue durée, whose legacy Philippe Fabry explicitly claims.
"The aim is to search for the laws of history, to identify models, to theorize history in the same way that we theorize astronomy or economics." Philippe Fabry — CNEWS, 2025
For a decision-maker, this method offers what no news commentary can produce: a structural, long-term analytical framework for ongoing transformations. Where traditional foresight extrapolates from trends, historionomy draws on the observable repetition of historical dynamics to identify what is probable, what is contingent, and what is noise.
Each lecture — 60 to 90 minutes, followed by a 30-minute Q&A — is prepared on the basis of prior discussions with the organizers. The topics listed below are the most frequently requested, but any subject related to long-range history, political cycles, and geopolitical transformations can be covered.
What the cycles of history tell us about the coming decade. Identification of recurring phases of political, economic, and geopolitical transformation — and the probable trajectories through 2030-2035.
The historionomic framework applied to investment and allocation decisions. Power cycles, imperial decline, regional reconfigurations: identifying breaking points before they are priced in.
Diagnosis of the European imperial phase and exit scenarios. Between a legitimacy crisis and a revolutionary process: comparable historical trajectories and what they suggest for the coming European decade.
Why empires die and civilizations are reborn. A historionomic analysis of cycles of innovation, conservatism, and disruption, and the structural conditions that foster — or kill — creative phases.
A lawyer at the Toulouse Bar and a trained legal historian, Philippe Fabry has devoted fifteen years of research to theorizing history as a scientific discipline. A self-described disciple of Fernand Braudel and the Annales school, he has built the body of historionomy through ten published works — from classical historical studies (Rome, France, Europe) to applied historical theory (Atlas des guerres à venir, Histoire du Siècle à venir).
His analyses are regularly sought by national and international media (TV5 Monde, CNEWS, Sud Radio, Léman Bleu, Le Figaro), and his work is followed by a professional community of investment advisors, geopolitical analysts, defense officials, and political science students.
He has been delivering lectures since 2018, notably at the Sorbonne, at the Institut Catholique d'Études Supérieures (ICES), and for private organizations.
Selected feedback from organizers and participants on his past lectures.
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[Testimonial 3 — highlighting the originality of the presentation, Philippe's ability to connect history to current events.]
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Each lecture is specifically prepared for the organization hosting it. Topics are adapted, references chosen according to the sector, and duration adjusted to the chosen format.
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